Key trends in the global grain and pulses market in the 2026/27 MY will be one of the main topics of the grain session at the VI International Conference “Asia Grains&Oils Conference in Tashkent 2026”, which will take place in the capital of Uzbekistan on September 16. The topic will be covered in a presentation by Carlotta De Pasquale, Senior Analyst at Areté (Agrifood Intelligence Company, Italy).
The speaker holds a master’s degree in statistics and specializes in modeling and machine learning for the agri-food sector, as well as in price and demand forecasting. At Areté, Carlotta leads the analysis of individual agri-food commodity markets and price forecasting, including hard wheat, corn, rice, barley and sugar.
As C. De Pasquale notes, corn and wheat ended the 2025/26 MY with a surplus thanks to record-level production, which allowed stocks to build up. However, prospects for the 2026/27 MY are not as favorable.
Global corn production in the new season is expected to decline by 2.3%. As a result, the market could once again move into deficit, while global stocks could decline by around 8%.
As for regional trends, harvests in the American countries are expected to be below last season’s record levels: by 6% in the US, 13% in Argentina and 1% in Brazil. At the same time, sowing has not yet started in Argentina and Brazil, so these estimates may change. Despite the decline, production in the region will remain at historically high levels. Demand will also remain high, both for domestic consumption and exports.
The situation is considerably more difficult in Europe. Due to severe drought, yields are declining, and corn production in the EU could fall to its lowest level since 2007. This, in turn, will support import requirements at levels close to record highs.
In Ukraine, on the contrary, production is expected to increase by 3%, the expert forecasts. However, export capacity remains uncertain due to ongoing attacks and logistical constraints.
Global wheat production in the 2026/27 MY could decline by 3%, and the market could once again face a deficit. Global stocks could fall by 2.5%. In most major exporting countries, the harvest is expected to be smaller than last season, when yields were very high: by 2% in Russia, 8% in the EU, 12% in Canada, 22% in Australia and 23% in the US.
“An additional risk is linked to the Black Sea region. The escalation of the conflict is creating uncertainty around export capacity and could have serious repercussions for the global market. Russia remains the world’s largest wheat exporter, while Ukraine is the only major exporting country where production is expected to increase in the new season, by around 5%.
In the EU, there is also an issue with grain quality. Severe drought could lead to a larger share of wheat being used for animal feed,” Carlotta De Pasquale said.
The situation in the pulses market is broadly similar. In the 2025/26 MY, production among most major players remained relatively high, while prices declined in a number of countries. But prospects for the 2026/27 MY look less certain. The speaker will focus in detail on trends and forecasts for chickpeas, lentils, yellow peas and green peas.
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