Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and China remain the backbone of Kazakh grain exports, while new markets are more targeted experiments than a strategic shift. From a logistics perspective, all alternative routes are structurally more expensive than the traditional markets of Central Asia and Afghanistan, which is why transport subsidies remain the main tool for bringing Kazakh agricultural products to new markets. Zeinolla Abdumanapov, Chairman of the Board of the National Association of Exporters KazGrain, said this in an exclusive interview with APK-Inform.
“In the 2025/26 MY, Kazakh grain exports are showing solid growth - from September 2025 to July 2026, almost 14 million tons of grain and flour in grain equivalent were shipped, 12.6% more than last year. The main drivers of growth were traditional destinations, namely Central Asia and Afghanistan. Uzbekistan remains the clear leader at 5.8 million tons, showing a 36% increase from the previous season. Afghanistan, however, posted the most impressive growth, up 57% to 2.4 million tons. Central Asia and Afghanistan together accounted for most of the increase in exports this season,” the expert said.
At the same time, diversification is also taking place, with Kazakh wheat gradually entering new markets, including Iran and even the UK. However, volumes remain small. Flour exports, meanwhile, continue to rest on four pillars: Central Asia, Afghanistan, Russia and China.
According to the KazGrain head, the main reason for the increase in exports to Afghanistan is the refusal to fully refund VAT to agricultural product exporters, namely the adjustment of the VAT credit to 80% and the actual refund of 20%. At the same time, the full VAT refund remained in place for flour producers. The high 2025 harvest, with average quality indicators, also played a role.
Zeinolla Abdumanapov will be one of the key speakers at the VI International Conference “Asia Grains&Oils Conference in Tashkent 2026”, which will take place in the Uzbek capital on September 16. During his presentation, he will discuss growth opportunities and transformations in Kazakhstan’s grain market.
Register now - less than a month remains before the event starts!