The main threat for Kazakh exporters in the new season, particularly those focused on trade with China, is high-quality new-crop grain. Zeinolla Abdumanapov, Chairman of the Board of the National Association of Exporters KazGrain, said this in an exclusive interview with APK-Inform.
“China is the main source of growth, but also the main source of headaches. Feed flour is the absolute leader this season. In the first nine months of the 2025/26 MY, a record 2.76 million tons were shipped, almost 1.9 times last year’s figure... Feed flour has traditionally been made from low-grade wheat (classes 4-5), which is simply in short supply this year due to the heat. The temptation to make up the shortfall with Russian raw materials is strong, but China explicitly prohibits the use of Russian grain in flour for its market. Such a violation has already led to export restrictions in early 2026,” the expert said.
In his view, Kazakhstan’s exports to China are growing not because the market is easy to work with, but despite the barriers. In March 2026, China unexpectedly tightened requirements for feed flour exporters, and businesses seriously feared a complete halt to shipments. Permission was restored only at the end of April, while the re-registration of companies under the new blend composition (80% wheat, 20% barley) was difficult - by the deadline for submitting documents, only 27 of the 96 Kazakh companies had been included in the register.
Another problem is logistics.
“Border crossings are a constant bottleneck. In autumn 2025, China reduced the number of trains accepted through Altynkol from 14 to 6-10 per day due to increased inspections, while railcars were piling up at the border. Even now, with the situation generally smoother, the risk of a repeat remains high during the peak season,” the KazGrain head said.
According to industry players, an increase in exports to China in the new season will be possible in the absence of administrative barriers from Chinese government authorities.
Zeinolla Abdumanapov will present his outlook and forecasts for the development of the Central Asian grain market at the VI International Conference “Asia Grains&Oils Conference in Tashkent 2026”, which will take place in the capital of Uzbekistan on September 16. We invite you to take part!