According to a preliminary APK-Inform estimate, combined shipments of Ukrainian and Russian sunflower oil in August this year may not exceed 350 thousand tons, compared with 579 thousand tons in July, due to limited shipping in the Black and Azov seas and the suspension of shipments from the main ports.
However, the global market is reacting cautiously for now, firstly due to the possibility of substitution: in August-September, the shortfall in Black Sea oil will be partly offset by supplies from Argentina and Bulgaria and by other vegetable oils. However, this resource is not unlimited, and major importers are already actively looking for alternatives. Secondly, the market is in the interseasonal period, and lower shipments during this period are normal.
But if the situation with shipments through the ports is not resolved soon, the arrival of new-crop sunflower could significantly push down the domestic market for raw materials and oil at the start of the new season.
According to APK-Inform estimates, sunflower production in Ukraine in 2026 is expected at around 13.4 million tons, which could be a three-year high. However, if seaborne oil shipments do not resume before the active arrival of the new crop, the domestic market risks facing a surplus of raw material precisely when opportunities to sell oil will be limited.
To minimize risks, plants are likely to be more cautious in purchasing raw material or offer very low prices. The first signals are already there: Ukrainian sunflower prices fell by UAH 3,000-5,000 per ton in July and early August, while bid prices for new-crop raw material were quoted at UAH 10,000 per ton below actual working purchase prices, at UAH 19,500-22,000 per ton CPT.
A similar situation could potentially emerge in Russia: a record crop estimated at more than 20 million tons will also face limited export opportunities. But while Ukraine already has established alternative export routes, Russian companies have only recently faced such a problem, and shifting to alternative routes will therefore take more time.
For this reason, a significant recovery in Black Sea oil shipments should not be expected in September-October of the new season. In addition, a rapid arrival and start of processing of the new crop should not be expected either: due to the cool spring, the harvest campaign in Ukraine and the European part of Russia will most likely start later than usual.
As a result, in the short term, lower shipments from Ukraine and Russia will not create a global shortage, but could provide grounds for price support. At the same time, if the logistics problem lasts for several months, importers will have an incentive to diversify their purchases more quickly.
Svitlana Kyrychok, an analyst at APK-Inform, will speak at the Asia Grains&Oils Conference in Tashkent on “Global potential of the sunflower and sunflower oil market in the 2026/27 MY: between fundamental factors and logistics risks”
The key issues to be addressed in the presentation include the most pressing aspects of the new season:
- What export potential for Black Sea sunflower oil can be expected in the new season?
- How quickly will Ukrainian and Russian companies be able to adapt to new routes?
- What can be expected from the main importers and buyers most dependent on Black Sea products?
- Will the main competitors be able to use the opportunity to strengthen their presence in key markets?
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